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Can a leadership spill affect your holiday?

With Canberra arguably the coup capital of the world - as evidenced by the swearing in of six Austrralian PMs in eight years - it’s surprising our economy has stood up as well as it has. 


But with each leadership spill comes a certain level of economic uncertainty. And it isn’t just exports like inbound tourism that can be affected; travel abroad can also be impacted, thanks mostly to fluctuations in the Aussie dollar. 



“It is interesting to look back at the first Australian Labor Party spill when Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd on the 24th of June 2010,” Travel Money Group General Manager Kelly Spence’s said.


“The week leading up to this, the AUD was experiencing a small amount of growth, but as speculation began to circulate and Gillard announced her challenge on the 23th of June, the dollar began to fall.


“By the time Rudd was replaced the dollar had steadied back to its original figure.”


When Ms Gillard foiled a comeback by Mr Rudd in February 2012, the Aussie dollar remained steady. But when Rudd eventually mounted a successful challenge in 2013, the dollar weakened significantly. 


A fall also occurred when Malcolm Turnbull successfully overthrew Tony Abbott in September 2015 - although the dollar did recover the following day. 


“We are now set to see history repeat itself with Scott Morrison scoring a shock victory in a messy spill against sitting PM Malcolm Turnbull which also featured Peter Dutton and Julie Bishop in the running,” Ms Spence said.


“Past history suggests that the dollar may continue to fall as it has since the 22nd of August.”


So while history suggests Canberran coups can impact the Aussie dollar, they shouldn’t weaken the value of your next holiday. 


Still, let’s hope there aren’t any more farcical leadership spills to test that theory (at least until the next election).


Written by: Mark Harada
Published: 27 August 2018

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